Despite near-term challenges in some markets, based on today's policy settings, almost 1 in 3 cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost 1 in 5 in both United States and European Union
More than one in five cars sold worldwide this year is expected to be electric, with surging demand projected over the next decade set to remake the global auto industry and significantly reduce oil consumption for road transport, according to the new edition of the IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook.
The latest Outlook, published today, finds that global electric car sales are set to remain robust in 2024, reaching around 17 million by the end of the year. In the first quarter, sales grew by about 25% compared with the same period in 2023 – similar to the growth rate seen in the same period a year earlier, but from a larger base. The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.
In 2024, electric cars sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, roughly one in nine cars sold are projected to be electric – while in Europe, despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales and the phase-out of subsidies in some countries, electric cars are still set to represent about one in four cars sold.
This growth builds on a record-breaking 2023. Last year, global electric car sales soared by 35% to almost 14 million. While demand remained largely concentrated in China, Europe and the United States, growth also picked up in some emerging markets such as Viet Nam and Thailand, where electric cars accounted for 15% and 10%, respectively, of all cars sold.
Substantial investment in the electric vehicle supply chain, ongoing policy support, and declines in the price of EVs and their batteries are expected to produce even more significant changes in the years to come. The Outlook finds that under today’s policy settings, every other car sold globally is set to be electric by 2035. Meanwhile, if countries’ announced energy and climate pledges are met in full and on time, two in three cars sold would be electric by 2035. In this scenario, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles – from cars to vans, trucks, buses, and two- and three-wheelers – avoids the need for around 12 million barrels of oil per day, on a par with current demand from road transport in China and Europe combined.
“The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly. Based on today’s policy settings alone, almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union. This shift will have major ramifications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.”
The report finds that manufacturers have taken major steps to deliver on the strengthening EV ambitions of governments, including by making significant financial commitments. Thanks to high levels of investment over the past five years, the world’s capacity to produce batteries for EVs is well positioned to keep up with demand, even as it rises sharply over the next decade. The pace of the transition to EVs may not be consistent and will hinge on affordability, the report emphasises.
In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already less expensive to buy than their conventional equivalents. However, in Europe and the United States, the purchase prices for cars with internal combustion engines remained cheaper on average, though intensifying market competition and improving battery technologies are expected to reduce prices in the coming years. Even where upfront prices are high, the lower operating costs of EVs mean the initial investment pays back over time.
Growing electric car exports from Chinese automakers, which accounted for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, could add to downward pressure on purchase prices. Chinese companies, which are also setting up production facilities abroad, have already seen strong sales of more affordable models launched in 2022 and 2023 in overseas markets. This highlights that the composition of the main EV-producing economies is diverging considerably from the traditional auto industry.
Ensuring that the availability of public charging keeps pace with electric vehicle sales is crucial for continued growth, according to the report. The number of public charging points installed globally was up 40% in 2023 relative to 2022, and growth for fast chargers outpaced that of slower ones. However, to meet a level of electric vehicle deployment in line with the pledges made by governments, charging networks need to grow sixfold by 2035. At the same time, policy support and careful planning are essential to make sure greater demand for electricity from charging does not overstretch electricity grids.
Accompanying the Global EV Outlook 2024 are the Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer. These online tools allow users to interactively explore EV statistics, projections and policy measures worldwide.
FAQs
Electric car sales keep rising and could reach around 17 million in 2024, accounting for more than one in five cars sold worldwide. Electric cars continue to make progress towards becoming a mass-market product in a larger number of countries.
What is the trend in electric cars in 2024? ›
As a result, electric car sales could represent around 45% of total car sales in China over 2024. In 2024, electric car sales in the United States are projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year, translating to almost half a million more sales, relative to 2023.
Why are electric vehicles bad? ›
Making electric cars creates more emissions
The raw materials for making the car have to be mined, and the process of mining creates a lot of greenhouse gases. Then the raw materials have to be refined before they can be used, which again emits more greenhouse gas.
How fast is the electric car industry growing? ›
In the first quarter, sales grew by about 25% compared with the same period in 2023 – similar to the growth rate seen in the same period a year earlier, but from a larger base. The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.
Which state will require all cars sold to be hydrogen powered or electric by the year 2035? ›
The states are following California's Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII) rule, which requires automakers and car dealers to sell increasingly more zero-emissions vehicles each year between 2026 and 2035.
What is the forecast for EV sales in 2024? ›
Domestic electric vehicle sales are likely to grow 15% to 20% per annum over 2024 and 2025, down from over 36% in 2023, meaning EV penetration will rise toward 40% by 2025.
What is the global EV forecast for 2024? ›
The latest IEA Outlook report asserts that global EV sales are set to remain “robust” in 2024, reaching around 17 million by the end of the year. In Q1, sales grew by about 25% year-over-year – similar to the growth rate seen in the same period a year earlier but from a larger base.
What is the biggest problem with electric cars? ›
One key disadvantage of electric cars is the battery life. Like all batteries, the capacity decreases over time. Researchers suggest battery capacity decreases by approximately 2.3% every year. Battery longevity is highly dependent on temperature.
What is the biggest issue with electric cars? ›
Consumer Reports said EV owners most frequently reported troubles with battery and charging systems as well as flaws in how the vehicles' body panels and interior parts fit together.
Are electric cars damaging? ›
Myth #2: Electric vehicles are worse for the climate than gasoline cars because of battery manufacturing. FACT: The greenhouse gas emissions associated with an electric vehicle over its lifetime are typically lower than those from an average gasoline-powered vehicle, even when accounting for manufacturing.
Electric vehicles could make up as much as nearly half of global car sales by 2035, and our analysts forecast that more advanced autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles will make up the same share of sales just five years later. It's a fundamental shift, upending labor markets, supply chains, and commodity markets.
Which country has the most electric cars? ›
As of 2024, China is the country with the most electric cars in the world – and by a long shot. In 2021, there were 417 million registered vehicles in China, 319 million of which were passenger cars. Of that, 13.1 million were “new energy vehicles” – those with electric, hybrid or hydrogen fuel cell powertrains.
Why are EV sales declining? ›
Even as the variety of EV models available rises and prices fall, and the U.S. brings in tax credits, EVs remain much more expensive than their gasoline-powered counterparts. With U.S. interest rates at a two-decade high, the price tag for the average American car shopper is prohibitive.
Why don t we drive hydrogen cars? ›
Another barrier to the adoption of hydrogen fuel cars is the high cost of production and storage. Hydrogen gas is primarily obtained through electrolysis, which requires a significant amount of energy. Currently, most hydrogen is produced using fossil fuels, which defeats the purpose of reducing carbon emissions.
Why hydrogen will never be the future of electric cars? ›
Why are hydrogen cars not the future? Many drawbacks, such as fewer refueling stations, expensive maintenance, and inefficient fuel cells, can lead you to determine that hydrogen cars will not take over the current market of EVs in the future.
Will hydrogen ever be used as fuel? ›
Although the market for hydrogen as a transportation fuel is in its infancy, government and industry are working toward clean, economical, and safe hydrogen production and distribution for widespread use in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
Will EV stocks recover in 2024? ›
Automakers have reported impressive January delivery numbers and are optimistic about the revival of the industry in 2024. It may take some time for all the EV stocks to recover, but a few stocks are trading at a discount today, and they have the potential to double in 2024.
What percentage of cars will be electric by 2025? ›
By 2025, electric vehicle sales could comprise up to 20% of new car sales. By 2030, electric vehicle sales could reach 40% of new car sales.
Will all cars have to be electric by 2025? ›
As part of the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, all new passenger cars, trucks, and SUVs sold in California will be zero-emission vehicles by 2035. In October 2023, staff launched a new effort to consider amendments to the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations.
What is the future potential of electric cars? ›
Electric vehicles could make up as much as nearly half of global car sales by 2035, and our analysts forecast that more advanced autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles will make up the same share of sales just five years later. It's a fundamental shift, upending labor markets, supply chains, and commodity markets.
